Xianchun said, in terms of production or demand to see the economy gradually picked up momentum, so that economic growth has entered a new round of rise, of course, have policy continuity and continuity of protection.
needs to prove the economy rebound
look at a few key industries. Look at the industry. Industrial divided into two blocks from the statistical point of view, a scale, one called the scale below. Scale accounted for more than the proportion of relatively large, probably about 80%, largely on behalf of industrial development. The above-scale industrial growth rate last year is basically a downward trend, an upturn in 2009, V-shaped. Constitute the bottom of the 3.8% growth in 1-2 months to March was 8.9 percent, 7.3 percent in April, from the beginning of May increased month by month, for seven months the rise and has reached 19.2 percent in November growth over 2008 for any month, the highest growth rate in 28 months.
Fourth, the real estate market rebound is conducive to maintaining the continued growth of the market. 2008 sales of commercial property is basically a down trend, climbing higher and higher in 2009. Good time when real estate sales market, the developers see this profit will increase investment, real estate investment in 2009 to gradually rise in November is a growth of 17.8, the future will increase.
production prove the economy in the to rebounded
from another perspective, growth is the angle of demand. Fully reflect the indicators of final demand changes in the expenditure approach, GDP, composed by three major demands, consumption demand, investment demand, and import and export needs. In the expenditure approach, GDP accounting in the national accounts, consumer demand is called the final consumption, investment demand is the gross capital formation, import and export demand for the import and export of goods and services. Final consumption, including household consumption and government consumption, gross capital formation, including fixed capital formation increased portfolio and inventory, import and export of goods and services, equal to exports minus imports of goods and services.
Xianchun, talk about the current economic growth is often inseparable from the review of the history of economic growth in the past in order to to examine the current economic growth on a historical point of view. Generally speaking, since the reform and opening up, China's economic growth performance for three cycles. The first cycle from 1981 to 1990, nine years time, the second cycle from 1990 to 1999, but also for nine years. The third cycle from 1999 to 2009.
third, new construction projects with total planned investment in high-speed growth, indicating that the coming period, fixed asset investment will still maintain a rapid growth. New construction project plans to invest since there are general engineering will continue, unless it is a small number of uncompleted flats or other unfinished projects. This indicates that the investment will maintain rapid growth.
first role in boosting domestic demand and industrial growth in enhanced. Is essentially a negative contribution of exports to industrial production, only to last month reflects the positive, which means that exports in 2008 compared to the negative pull, just positive. But we have seen the industry in all the way up. This means that the external demand did not significantly improve the situation, even in the case of the negative pull, industrial growth is domestic demand at work. Domestic demand growth weathered the decline in external demand, making GDP growth gradually picked up. Enhancement of domestic demand to promote the role is to ensure sustained economic recovery in a very important factor.
○ both from the production or demand, the economy gradually picked up momentum, so that economic growth has entered a new round of rise, of course, have a policy of sustained and continuous protection.
the second largest category of consumption is government consumption. How to reflect the government consumption, and many comrades said to see the financial expenditure. Financial expenditure, it is divided into three categories, one called investment expenditure, such as the government to invest in airport terminals, railway construction. The second category is called metastatic spending, the government for social security spending. The third category is called the current operating expenditure, that is, to government departments to provide public services such expenditures. In fact, the investment expenditure and metastatic spending can not be handled as government consumption, otherwise heavier. Government investment expenditure into investment, no metastatic spending and production activities corresponding to not be included to the GDP. In 2009, the first quarter of fiscal expenditure growth of 34.8%, regular business expenses is probably about 8% growth. Fiscal spending of 26.3 percent growth in the first half, but the government spending part is probably around 7% growth. The first three quarters of the 24.1% growth in fiscal expenditure, government consumption growth of 8.6%. The financial expenditure is very high in the first quarter and then decline significantly, but consumer spending as the government is basically about 7-8, in the steady state. If no financial expenditure broken down, you may conclude, first, government consumption is relatively high. Second, government consumption gradually declined, and the practical otherwise.
proposal is to strengthen the coordination of international trade, reduce the adverse impact of trade protectionism, China's economic development; in order to maintain the basic stability of the overall price level, efforts to achieve economic steady recovery in managing inflation expectations; in order to avoid exacerbate the demand structure is irrational, and efforts to achieve steady economic rebound to increase the economic restructuring, to ensure the structural adjustment as to maintain long-term economic and rapid economic development direction and strive to improve our country economic innovation capacity and level.
2009 and then a long period of time, the beginning of this year, the economy will show how the trend, I think that may still be an upward trend, at least the fourth quarter of last year is rising. There are several reasons.
look at the increase in inventory investment demand. Changes in the second quarter of 2008 inventory increase is the highest in history, more than 2300 yuan. The third quarter, fell back to the fourth quarter of negative growth. The international financial crisis, the impact of external demand caused by a sharp contraction, a sharp decline in product prices, in order to reduce losses, not production, eliminate inventory, so the stock dropped significantly. In particular, the first quarter of 2009 has been negative over 1700 billion. With the economic recovery in the second quarter, enterprises see hope, the stock rebounded. Is already positive in the second quarter, more than 900 billion yuan,christian louboutin, 120 billion yuan to the third quarter.
before the end of
from the production point of view, China's economic growth quarter by quarter rebound. 2008 is a quarterly basis in the fall to the first quarter of 2009 the growth rate of 6.1% in the second quarter was 7.9 percent, the third quarter is 8.9%, quarter by quarter picked up from the October and November data is sustainable. Many scholars have reached a consensus to achieve 8% growth rate in 2009 is not a problem. From the quarterly, 6.1% in the first quarter constitute a quarter of the bottom of the third round of economic growth cycle, I believe the bottom of it is also a new round of economic growth, but also the starting point for a new round of economic growth. From the second quarter for two consecutive quarterly rise, reversing declined for seven consecutive quarters of growth since the third quarter of 2007.
second inventory covering contribute to economic recovery. The fourth quarter of 2008, when the inventory is negative in the fourth quarter of 2009, however inventory will not be negative, a positive and negative compared to the formation of the upward pull of GDP.
○ current world economy has begun to recover, but the pace of recovery is slow, and the rise of trade protectionism, the external environment remains grim.
in 2009, most parts of above-scale industrial growth also picked up. The 31 regions in the second quarter, the first quarter of the 25 regions is to speed up; the third quarter and second quarter growth rate of 26 regions in accelerating. In particular, the southeast coastal areas by the international financial crisis, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other. Shanghai in the 1-2 month time scale industrial added value fell by 12.4 percent over the same period in 2008 decreased by 12.4%. Decline after constantly narrowed, returning to positive growth in June, to restore the double-digit growth in October, an increase of 14.2 percent in November. Zhejiang 1-2 months is 8.2 percent decline in April to positive growth, double-digit resume in September, November, an increase of 19%. Guangdong 1 month of only 0.8%, close to zero growth, followed by an increase in the fluctuations in the rising double-digit growth in September, October, an increase of 16.2%.
○ structural adjustment pressure further increase, especially in the process of maintaining economic growth, there was indeed some local emphasis to maintain growth, but changes in the way of structural adjustment and economic growth see the light. 165
three major demands, consumption demand and investment demand growth showing the trend of rising quarter by quarter, the formation of a strong forward pull on GDP, import and export demand fell, negative pulling effect on the GDP trend was increased quarter by quarter. Forward pull of consumer demand and investment demand to GDP over the negative pull of the import and export demand to GDP, so from the demand point of view, the rate of economic growth quarter by quarter, accounting for GDP from the production point of view is the same trend.
policy package of the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, as well as to promote stable and rapid economic development, since early 2009, China's economy showed a significant upward trend.
look at the real estate industry. Real estate sales in 2008 and gradually lower, and are experiencing negative growth. 2009 is different, 1-2 months, declined 0.3 percent from March, the monthly rise in November is about 53% of the growth, the rate of increase of real estate sales continued to rise.
look at the fixed capital formation. As gross fixed capital formation of GDP by expenditure approach, and professional statisticians in total fixed productive investment there is a difference. The total fixed productive investment and urban investment and rural investment, urban investment accounted for the major part of the monthly growth rate of urban fixed productive investment, in 2009, showing increased month by month from January to February, an increase of 26.1%, until June, about 35%, then smooth the last couple of months in the fall. Total fixed productive investment, including the total urban fixed investment and fixed capital formation are different, but the trend is quite similar to, which determines the total fixed productive capital in the first half increased by the relatively stable trend in the second half. The total fixed asset investment, urban investment and investment in rural areas together, a quarter was 26.8 percent growth in the first half of the 33.5% growth, to the first three quarters was 33.5%, basically in the high running smoothly.
financial industry, financial owners by the composition of the three sectors: banking, securities-, and insurance. Banking, its deposit and loan balance is basically to take a gradual upward trend. Securities industry, the stock turnover is also an upward trend. The insurance industry was in the first half of 2009 is relatively low, only about 1% of the growth, but recently it has been a growth of about 40%. Growth in deposit and loan balances, securities transaction volume growth in premium income growth, the increase in value of the financial industry is the upward trend.
50 of China's economic forum, Sina Finance and Tsinghua University jointly organized by Sina Chang'an forum recently held. The Forum invited experts, the National Bureau of Statistics Xianchun entitled: He said that China's reform and opening up 30 years, economic growth, the formation of three cycles. China's economic growth, both production and demand are in a gradual recovery trend, economic growth has entered a new round of rise.
○ investment spending and metastatic spending can not be used as government consumption. Government investment expenditure into investment, transfer expenditure is not opposed to drilling and production activities should not be included into the G DP.
first cycle since 1981, economic growth is 5.2%. To reach the peak of this cycle in 1984, 15.2%, which is the maximum value of China's economic growth since the reform and opening up. To 1990, when economic growth down to 3.8%, which is the minimum value of China's economic growth since the reform and opening up. Second round of the cycle from 3.8% in 1990 to 4.2% in 1992, 1999, down to the bottom, 7.6%. The third cycle began in 2007, reaching a new peak of 13% from 7.6% in 1999. 2009, expected economic growth above 8%.
economic growth in three cycle
then look at the import and export services. Goods and services, import and export stimulating role increased in the quarter by quarter. This is the view of many comrades conflict. Why is there a clear conflict? We have carefully parsed. Take a look at the first quarter of 2009, the customs statistics, exports dropped 19.8 percent, trade imports fell 30.9 percent, the trade balance is positive 52.7%. Many comrades, since the trade surplus is more than 50%, the pull of the import and export to GDP must be positive even great. In actual fact, we counted its GDP formed a negative 0.2% downward pull. Why? First, this is a statistical indicator caliber. To see the import and export demand is the import and export of goods and services, it is the difference between the import of goods and services exports of goods and services. What is the balance of trade? Customs statistics, the trade balance of goods, does not include services. Our country a long time, trade in goods surplus in services trade deficit. The service trade deficit on goods trade surplus offset. Second, changes in exchange rates, 2009, the RMB against the U.S. dollar appreciation, in the case of appreciation of the renminbi is not the same goods performance yuan. Required in calculating GDP calculated in accordance with the unified currency, the exchange rate conversion process, the same imports and exports in U.S. dollars, but the exchange rate changes to import and export of goods and services is not the same as calculated in RMB appreciation of the renminbi. RMB RMB current shown the same period in 2008 to U.S. dollar is down. This is another offset. Third, price changes, this is one of the largest offset. Calculation of the GDP growth rate excluding the price factor, called the constant prices the GD P. goods and services import and export, import part of the reduction in the import price index, export part of reduced export price index, 2009 and 2008 phase than what? Is the export price decline, the price of imports fell even more sharply in the first quarter of the export price decline is only about 0.2%, but imports decreased more than 14%, so put pressure on the small current surplus, and in 2008 than in is negative. Short by calculating the first quarter, import and export to GDP formed a negative 0.2% of the pull, the formation of the downward pull of negative 2.9% to GDP in the first half of the first three quarters of GDP formation of a negative 3.6% of the pull.
data in the first quarter of 2009, when being questioned more and more important reason is to say generating capacity and electricity consumption is declining, but the industrial added value growth rate is positive. Now may not be such a challenge, because the generating capacity is gradually increased, has now reached more than 20% of the growth has been more than the above-scale industrial added value growth rate.
economy has entered a new round of rise
from a product point of view, most products are in recovery. 2009, the industrial enterprises above designated size, statistically there are 494 kinds of main products in the second quarter, 337 kinds of product growth to accelerate in the third quarter, 351 kinds of product growth accelerated in improving the rate of increase of most of the products. Several major products. Crude steel production is the trend to rise 1 to February 2, .4% increase in October, has more than 47%. Steel production is also basically rose month by month, 1 to 3.1 percent in February, is already more than 40% growth in November. Car in 1-2 months and the same period last year decreased 1.7% positive growth in March, and then rose month by month, to August, when there are already more than 90% growth in November, 100%, is multiplied growth.
first look at the consumer often reflect the total retail sales of social consumer goods. But does have a very clear distinction between the total retail sales of social consumer goods and consumer. Therefore, the use of social consumer goods retail sales reflect the consumer must pay attention to, and often not particularly accurate conclusions. The gradual introduction of the information obtained in the household survey --- cash consumption per capita expenditure for rural residents and urban residents consumption expenditure to calculate. From the consumption of rural residents in 2009, a quarter is 9.3% growth in the first half of the year is 10.7 percent growth in the first three quarters of an increase of 10.9%, showing a steady upward trend. Per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents in the first quarter is 9.6% and 10.3% in the first half of the first three quarters was 10.1 percent, rising in the first half and a quarter, but fell slightly in the third quarter and first half, the basic stable. So the whole, the consumer is a steady upward trend.
a low base, conducive to the enhancement of the economy. These factors indicate the future of our economy in a certain period of time will maintain an upward trend.
issues and recommendations
problem, China's economy is facing difficulties and problems. First, although the world economy has started to recover, but the slow pace of recovery, and the rise of trade protectionism, so the external environment remains grim. Second, the structural adjustment of the pressure further increase, especially in the process of maintaining economic growth, there was indeed some places emphasis to maintain growth, structural adjustment and economic growth pattern, but some of the light. Third, inflation expectations are growing. Fourth, the obvious contradiction between the part of industry overcapacity. Fifth, the lack of innovative capacity, and quality of economic growth is not high. Our economic growth depends mainly on setting up shops, rely on high resource consumption, environmental pollution, the technical content is not enough. 相关的主题文章：
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